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| Titel |
Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Benito, R. Brázdil, J. Herget, M. J. Machado |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 8 ; Nr. 19, no. 8 (2015-08-10), S.3517-3539 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120787
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-3517-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics
(peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary
evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood
records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological
evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of
developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge
calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data
for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic
gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two
decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in
understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood
heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and
statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A
compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges
demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual
within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed
past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po
rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s,
although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of
rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining
understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy
approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time
flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing
non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of
past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency
climate variability. |
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