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Titel |
Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation |
VerfasserIn |
C. J. Gabriel, A. Robock |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1680-7316
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 20 ; Nr. 15, no. 20 (2015-10-27), S.11949-11966 |
Datensatznummer |
250120125
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/acp-15-11949-2015.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
To examine the impact of proposed stratospheric geoengineering schemes on the
amplitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations
we examine climate model simulations from the Geoengineering Model
Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G1–G4 experiments. Here we compare tropical
Pacific behavior under anthropogenic global warming (AGW) using several
scenarios: an instantaneous quadrupling of the atmosphere's CO2
concentration, a 1 % annual increase in CO2 concentration, and the
representative concentration pathway resulting in 4.5 W m−2 radiative
forcing at the end of the 21st century, the Representative Concentration
Pathway 4.5 scenario, with that under G1–G4 and under historical model
simulations. Climate models under AGW project relatively uniform warming
across the tropical Pacific over the next several decades. We find no
statistically significant change in ENSO frequency or amplitude under
stratospheric geoengineering as compared with those that would occur under
ongoing AGW, although the relative brevity of the G1–G4 simulations may have
limited detectability of such changes. We also find that the amplitude and
frequency of ENSO events do not vary significantly under either AGW scenarios
or G1–G4 from the variability found within historical simulations or
observations going back to the mid-19th century. Finally, while warming of
the Niño3.4 region in the tropical Pacific is fully offset in G1 and G2
during the 40-year simulations, the region continues to warm significantly in
G3 and G4, which both start from a present-day climate. |
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