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| Titel |
A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Brazdova, J. Říha |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 7 ; Nr. 14, no. 7 (2014-07-03), S.1663-1676 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118535
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1663-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper a model for the estimation of the number of potential
fatalities is proposed based on data from 19 past floods in central Europe.
First, the factors contributing to human losses during river floods are
listed and assigned to the main risk factors: hazard – exposure –
vulnerability. The order of significance of individual factors has been
compiled by pairwise comparison based on experience with real flood events. A
comparison with factors used in existing models for the estimation of
fatalities during floods shows good agreement with the significant factors
identified in this study. The most significant factors affecting the number
of human losses in floods have been aggregated into three groups and
subjected to correlation analysis. A close-fitting regression dependence is
proposed for the estimation of loss of life and calibrated using data from
selected real floods in central Europe. The application of the proposed model
for the estimation of fatalities due to river floods is shown via a flood
risk assessment for the locality of Krnov in the Czech Republic. |
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