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| Titel |
Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Lang, X. Fettweis, M. Erpicum |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 3 ; Nr. 9, no. 3 (2015-05-07), S.945-956 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116794
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-945-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance
(SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by
MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of
10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt
everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around
2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the
archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly
driven by the albedo–melt feedback associated with the expansion of the
ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar
radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The
near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in
summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The
model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient,
related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard.
By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions,
leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer. |
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