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| Titel |
Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0 |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Zhao, S. X. Wang, J. Xing, K. Fu, J. S. Fu, C. Jang, Y. Zhu, X. Y. Dong, Y. Gao, W. J. Wu, J. D. Wang, J. M. Hao |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 8, no. 1 ; Nr. 8, no. 1 (2015-01-30), S.115-128 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116033
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-8-115-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is
developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles
(PM2.5) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor
emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed
based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it
first quantifies the relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and the
emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the
conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional
transport of PM2.5 and its gaseous precursors on PM2.5
concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a
widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta
(YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM2.5 and its
inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector
combinations. The predicted PM2.5 concentrations agree well with
independent CTM simulations; the correlation
coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs)
are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also
demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response
of PM2.5 to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero
and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources
contributing to PM2.5 and its inorganic components in the YRD region.
The nonlinearity in the response of PM2.5 to emission changes is
characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated. |
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