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| Titel |
CranSLIK v1.0: stochastic prediction of oil spill transport and fate using approximation methods |
| VerfasserIn |
B. J. Snow, I. Moulitsas, A. J. Kolios, M. De Dominicis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 7, no. 4 ; Nr. 7, no. 4 (2014-07-22), S.1507-1516 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115666
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-7-1507-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper investigates the development of a model, called CranSLIK,
to predict the transport and transformations of a point mass oil
spill via a stochastic approach. Initially the various effects on
destination are considered and key parameters are chosen
which are expected to dominate the displacement. The variables
considered are: wind velocity, surface water velocity, spill size,
and spill age. For a point mass oil spill, it is found that the
centre of mass can be determined by the wind and current data only,
and the spill size and age can then be used to reconstruct the
surface of the spill. These variables are sampled and simulations
are performed using an open-source Lagrangian approach-based code,
MEDSLIK II. Regression modelling is applied to create two sets of
polynomials: one for the centre of mass, and one for the spill size.
Simulations performed for a real oil spill case show that a minimum of approximately 80% of the oil is captured by CranSLIK. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to
allow for consideration of the most likely destination for the oil
spill, when the distributions for the oceanographic conditions are
known. |
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