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| Titel |
Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction |
| VerfasserIn |
O. Martínez-Alvarado |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2198-5634
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions ; 1, no. 1 ; Nr. 1, no. 1 (2014-03-07), S.131-153 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115074
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npgd-1-131-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the
problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their
suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate
model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the
projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space. In this
contribution, the Lorenz '63 system is used both as a prototype system and as
an imperfect model to investigate the implications of the second assumption.
By comparing results drawn from the Lorenz '63 system and from numerical
weather and climate models, the implications of using imperfect models for
the prediction of weather and climate are discussed. It is shown that the
imperfect model's orbit and the system's orbit are essentially different,
purely due to model error and not to sensitivity to initial conditions.
Furthermore, if a model is a perfect model, then the attractor, reconstructed
by sampling a collection of initialised model orbits (forecast orbits), will
be invariant to forecast lead time. This conclusion provides an alternative
method for the assessment of climate models. |
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