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| Titel |
A comparison of the probability distribution of observed substorm magnitude with that predicted by a minimal substorm model |
| VerfasserIn |
S. K. Morley, M. P. Freeman, E. I. Tanskanen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 25, no. 11 ; Nr. 25, no. 11 (2007-11-29), S.2427-2437 |
| Datensatznummer |
250015951
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-25-2427-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We compare the probability distributions of substorm magnetic bay
magnitudes from observations and a minimal substorm model. The
observed distribution was derived previously and independently using
the IL index from the IMAGE magnetometer network. The model
distribution is derived from a synthetic AL index time series
created using real solar wind data and a minimal substorm model,
which was previously shown to reproduce observed substorm waiting
times. There are two free parameters in the model which scale the
contributions to AL from the directly-driven DP2 electrojet and
loading-unloading DP1 electrojet, respectively. In a limited region
of the 2-D parameter space of the model, the probability
distribution of modelled substorm bay magnitudes is not
significantly different to the observed distribution. The ranges of
the two parameters giving acceptable (95% confidence level)
agreement are consistent with expectations using results from other
studies. The approximately linear relationship between the two free
parameters over these ranges implies that the substorm magnitude
simply scales linearly with the solar wind power input at the time
of substorm onset. |
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