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| Titel |
Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
J.-P. Vidal, E. Martin, N. Kitova, J. Najac, J.-M. Soubeyroux |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 8 ; Nr. 16, no. 8 (2012-08-23), S.2935-2955 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013438
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-2935-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore
best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics,
such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper
addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of
drought events over France through three main research questions:
(1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate
spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural
droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such
characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use
standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation
scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface
model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General
Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results
from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought
reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of
meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the
Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness
Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results
first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal
characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the
downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All
spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to
dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for
agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are
eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate
and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of
drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios
show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios
at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess
the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale
mitigation. |
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