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| Titel |
Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM |
| VerfasserIn |
S. F. Kew, F. M. Selten, G. Lenderink, W. Hazeleger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 4 ; Nr. 15, no. 4 (2011-04-08), S.1157-1166 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012743
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-1157-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are
critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins.
Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario
simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums
over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to
1961–1990.
We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile
precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of
multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative
as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented
that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of
a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation
time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available
discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series. |
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