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| Titel |
On stochastic stability of regional ocean models with uncertainty in wind forcing |
| VerfasserIn |
L. M. Ivanov, P. C. Chu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 14, no. 5 ; Nr. 14, no. 5 (2007-10-25), S.655-670 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012282
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-14-655-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A shallow-water model was used to understand model error induced by
non-Gaussian wind uncertainty. Although the model was simple, it described a
generic system with many degrees of freedom randomized by external noise.
The study focused on the nontrivial collective behavior of finite-amplitude
perturbations on different scales and their influence on model
predictability. The error growth strongly depended on the intensity and
degree of spatial inhomogeneity of wind perturbations. For moderate but
highly inhomogeneous winds, the error grew as a power law. This behavior was
a consequence of varying local characteristic exponents and nonlinear
interactions between different scales. Coherent growth of perturbations was
obtained for different scales at various stages of error evolution. For the
nonlinear stage, statistics of prediction error could be approximated by a
Weibull distribution. An approach based on the Kullback-Leibler distance
(the relative entropy) and probability-weighted moments was developed for
identification of Weibull statistics. Bifurcations of the variance, skewness
and kurtosis of the irreversible predictability time (a measure of model
prediction skill) were detected when the accepted prediction accuracy
(tolerance) exceeded some threshold. |
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