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| Titel |
A meta-modelling strategy to identify the critical offshore conditions for coastal flooding |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Rohmer, D. Idier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 9 ; Nr. 12, no. 9 (2012-09-18), S.2943-2955 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011103
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2943-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| High water level at the coast may be the result of different combinations of
offshore hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. wave characteristics, offshore water
level, etc.). Providing the contour of the "critical" set of offshore
conditions leading to high water level is of primary importance either to
constrain early warning networks based on hydro-meteorological forecast or
observations, or for the assessment of the coastal flood hazard return
period. The challenge arises from the use of computationally intensive
simulators, which prevent the application of a grid approach consisting in
extracting the contour through the systematic evaluation of the simulator on
a fine design grid defined in the offshore conditions domain. To overcome
such a computational difficulty, we propose a strategy based on the kriging
meta-modelling technique combined with an adaptive sampling procedure aiming
at improving the local accuracy in the regions of the offshore conditions
that contribute the most to the estimate of the targeted contour. This
methodology is applied to two cases using an idealized site on the
Mediterranean coast (southern France): (1) a two-dimensional case to ease
the visual analysis and aiming at identifying the combination of offshore
water level and of significant wave height; (2) a more complex case aiming
at identifying four offshore conditions (offshore water level and offshore
wave characteristics: height, direction and period). By using a simulator of
moderate computation time cost (a few tens of minutes), the targeted contour
can be estimated using a cluster composed of a moderate number of computer
units. This reference contour is then compared with the results of the
meta-model-based strategy. In both cases, we show that the critical offshore
conditions can be estimated with a good level of accuracy using a very
limited number (of a few tens) of computationally intensive hydrodynamic
simulations. |
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