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| Titel |
Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Sarri, S. Guillas, F. Dias |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 6 ; Nr. 12, no. 6 (2012-06-25), S.2003-2018 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010931
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2003-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be
issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need
to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics
corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape
and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an
earthquake). Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads
to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification
impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may
represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the
outer product emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a
landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables
us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model
properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good
performance of the emulator is validated using the leave-one-out method. |
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