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| Titel |
An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Cools, P. Vanderkimpen, G. El Afandi, A. Abdelkhalek, S. Fockedey, M. Sammany, G. Abdallah, M. Bihery, W. Bauwens, M. Huygens |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 2 ; Nr. 12, no. 2 (2012-02-27), S.443-457 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010513
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-443-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the
Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited
availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the
wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and
observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission
impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific
uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed
and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data
(field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented
with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge.
Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated
or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past
significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal
distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration
losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr
(1979–2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of
these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional
storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash
flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration
and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of
an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong
institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to
operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and
emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster. |
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