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| Titel |
A minimal model for reconstructing interannual mass balance variability of glaciers in the European Alps |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Marzeion, M. Hofer, A. H. Jarosch, G. Kaser  , T. Mölg |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2012-01-17), S.71-84 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003375
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-6-71-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
We present a minimal model of the glacier surface mass balance. The model
relies solely on monthly precipitation and air temperatures as forcing. We
first train the model individually for 15 glaciers with existing mass balance
measurements. Based on a cross validation, we present a thorough assessment
of the model's performance outside of the training period. The cross
validation indicates that our model is robust, and our model's performance
compares favorably to that from a less parsimonious model based on seasonal
sensitivity characteristics. Then, the model is extended for application on
glaciers without existing mass balance measurements. We cross validated the
model again by withholding the mass balance information from each of the
15 glaciers above during the model training, in order to measure its
performance on glaciers not included in the model training. This cross
validation indicates that the model retains considerable skill even when
applied on glaciers without mass balance measurements.
As an exemplary application, the model is then used to reconstruct time series of
interannual mass balance variability, covering the past two hundred years, for all glaciers
in the European Alps contained in the extended format of the world glacier inventory. Based on
this reconstruction, we present a spatially detailed attribution of the glaciers' mass
balance variability to temperature and precipitation variability. |
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