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| Titel |
Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice |
| VerfasserIn |
T. S. Rogers, J. E. Walsh, T. S. Rupp, L. W. Brigham, M. Sfraga |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 7, no. 1 ; Nr. 7, no. 1 (2013-02-25), S.321-332 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017933
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-7-321-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections
to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state
and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a
prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge
observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's
first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice
trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional
differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss
has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum
(January–March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A
lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean
temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with
increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two
variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice.
The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics
to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over
the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model
performance across several different studies. The best performing models
project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through
2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months.
This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold
potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including
shipping and resource development opportunities. |
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