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| Titel |
Verification and comparison of probabilistic precipitation forecasts using the TIGGE data in the upriver of Huaihe Basin |
| VerfasserIn |
L.-N. Zhao, F.-Y. Tian, H. Wu, D. Qi, J.-Y. Di, Z. Wang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-03-04), S.95-102 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016939
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-95-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The precipitation forecasts of three ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and
two multi-model ensemble prediction systems (MM EPS) were assessed by
comparing with observations from 19 rain gauge stations located in the
Dapoling-Wangjiaba sub-catchment of Huaihe Basin for the period from 1 July to 6
August 2008. The sample Probabilistic Distribution Functions (PDF) of gamma
distribution, the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams, the
percentile precipitation and a heavy rainfall event are analyzed to evaluate
the performances of the single and multi-model ensemble prediction system
(EPS).
The three EPS were from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA); the
United States National Centre for Environment Predictions (NCEP); and the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), all were
obtained from the TIGGE-CMA archiving centre (THORPEX Interactive Grand
Global Ensemble, TIGGE). The MM EPS were created using the equal weighting
method for every ensemble member over the test area, the first ( MM-1)
consisted of all three EPS, the second (MM-2) consisted of the ECMWF and
NCEP EPS.
The results demonstrate the level of correspondence between deterioration in
predictive skill and extended lead time. Compared with observations and with
a lead time of one day, ECMWF performs a little better than other centre's.
With over five days in advance, all the three EPS and the two MM EPS don't
give reliable probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Both MM EPS can
outperform CMA and NCEP for most of the forecasted days, but still perform a
little worse than ECMWF. Though variation of daily percentile precipitation
and ROC areas show MM-2 outperforms MM-1, gamma distribution indicates much
similar performances for all 10-day forecast, and neither is superior to
ECMWF. |
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