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| Titel |
The role of hydrological model complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Ludwig, I. May, R. Turcotte, L. Vescovi, M. Braun, J.-F. Cyr, L.-G. Fortin, D. Chaumont, S. Biner, I. Chartier, D. Caya, W. Mauser |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Transdisciplinary concepts and modelling strategies for the assessment of complex environmental systems ; Nr. 21 (2009-08-11), S.63-71 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014530
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-21-63-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Little quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of
hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment. This
study investigates and compares the varieties of different model response of
three hydrological models (PROMET, Hydrotel, HSAMI), each representing a
different model complexity in terms of process description, parameter space
and spatial and temporal scale. The study is performed in the Ammer
watershed, a 709 km2 catchment in the Bavarian alpine forelands,
Germany. All models are driven and validated by a 30-year time-series
(1971–2000) of observation data. It is expressed by objective functions,
that all models, HSAMI and Hydrotel due to calibration, perform almost
equally well for runoff simulation over the validation period. Some
systematic deviances in the hydrographs and the spatial patterns of
hydrologic variables are however quite distinct and thus further discussed.
Virtual future climate (2071–2100) is generated by the Canadian Regional
Climate Model (vers 3.7.1), driven by the Coupled Global Climate Model
(vers. 2) based on an A2 emission scenario (IPCC 2007). The hydrological
model performance is evaluated by flow indicators, such as flood frequency,
annual 7-day and 30-day low flow and maximum seasonal flows. The modified
climatic boundary conditions cause dramatic deviances in hydrologic model
response. HSAMI shows tremendous overestimation of evapotranspiration, while
Hydrotel and PROMET behave in comparable range. Still, their significant
differences, like spatially explicit patterns of summerly water shortage or
spring flood intensity, highlight the necessity to extend and quantify the
uncertainty discussion in climate change impact analysis towards the
remarkable effect of hydrological model complexity. It is obvious that for
specific application purposes, water resources managers need to be made
aware of this effect and have to take its implications into account for
decision making. The paper concludes with an outlook and a proposal for
future research necessities. |
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