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| Titel |
Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Kopf, M. Ha-Duong, S. Hallegatte |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2008-08-20), S.905-918 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005662
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-905-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models
with spatial analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate
today corresponds to A's simulated future climate. Climates were
characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years
distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and
Cooling Degree Days. The level of correspondence (i.e. strength of analogy)
was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test,
generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities
at the end of the 21st century under an A2 climate change scenario. We
used two datasets produced with high-resolution regional climate simulation
models from the Hadley Centre and Meteo France. As expected from the modelled
warming in local climate, analogues were found in warmer regions, mostly at
more southerly latitudes within Europe, although much model and scenario
uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the
possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic
approach to think about how cities might adapt to different climates.
Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in
teaching and in several European mass-media. |
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