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| Titel |
Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Bauer-Gottwein, I. H. Jensen, R. Guzinski, G. K. T. Bredtoft, S. Hansen, C. I. Michailovsky |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 3 ; Nr. 19, no. 3 (2015-03-23), S.1469-1485 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120665
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-1469-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for
effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic
using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box
approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing
data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop
operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged
river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software
tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources
management in Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting
approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a
hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source
software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with
the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for
lead times of 0–7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are
evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators and the
performance is compared to persistence and climatology benchmarks. The
forecasting system delivers useful forecasts for the Kavango River, which
are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is
greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days. |
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