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| Titel |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
| VerfasserIn |
J. M. Siddaway, S. V. Petelina, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, R. J. Dargaville |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 8 ; Nr. 13, no. 8 (2013-04-29), S.4413-4427 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018617
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are
used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring
and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels
in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean
total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and
temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are
used to account for large variability in models, and the associated
uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the
trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will
not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of
the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in
December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower
compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase
after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at
20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at
50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at
20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow
increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic
atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup. |
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