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| Titel |
FLIP-MHD-based model sensitivity analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Skandrani, M. E. Innocenti, L. Bettarini, F. Crespon, J. Lamouroux, G. Lapenta |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 21, no. 2 ; Nr. 21, no. 2 (2014-04-24), S.539-553 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120912
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-21-539-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The state of the art in the
forecast of the background solar wind speed and of the interplanetary
magnetic field at Earth is based on the use as boundary conditions for
heliospheric models of the input data provided by solar observations.
Magnetogram synoptic maps are used to obtain information on the magnetic
field configuration at the solar source surface. Magnetic field inputs at the
solar source surface thus constitute one of the main external sources of
errors in solar wind models. The assimilation of data into forecasting models
used in the terrestrial domain showed the ability to control model state
errors. A sensitivity study performed through the analysis of the ensemble
variances and the representers technique is used here to assess how process
and model state errors propagate in a nonlinear two-dimensional MagnetoHydro
Dynamic (MHD) system. The aim is to understand the impact of the source
surface input parameters on the evolution of MHD heliospheric models and the
potentialities of data assimilation techniques in solar wind forecasting. The
representer technique in fact allows one to understand how far from the
observation point the improvement granted from the assimilation of a measure
propagates. |
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