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| Titel |
A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion |
| VerfasserIn |
J. P. Wang, Y. Xu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2015-10-23), S.2401-2412 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119725
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2401-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| From theory to experience, earthquake probability
associated with an active fault should be gradually increasing with time
since the last event. In this paper, a new non-stationary earthquake
assessment motivated/derived from the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is
introduced. Different from other non-stationary earthquake analyses, the new
model can more clearly define and calculate the stress states between two
characteristic earthquakes. In addition to the model development and the
algorithms, this paper also presents an example calculation to help explain
and validate the new model. On the condition of best-estimate model
parameters, the example calculation shows a 7.6 % probability for the
Meishan fault in central Taiwan to induce a major earthquake in years 2015–2025,
and if the earthquake does not occur by 2025, the
earthquake probability will increase to 8 % in 2025–2035,
which validates the new model that can calculate non-stationary earthquake
probability as it should vary with time. |
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