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| Titel |
Evaluating a mesoscale atmosphere model and a satellite-based algorithm in estimating extreme rainfall events in northwestern Turkey |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Yucel, A. Onen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 3 ; Nr. 14, no. 3 (2014-03-17), S.611-624 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118335
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-611-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Quantitative precipitation estimates are obtained with more uncertainty under
the influence of changing climate variability and complex topography from
numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. On the other hand, hydrologic
model simulations depend heavily on the availability of reliable
precipitation estimates. Difficulties in estimating precipitation impose an
important limitation on the possibility and reliability of hydrologic
forecasting and early warning systems. This study examines the performance of
the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Multi Precipitation
Estimates (MPE) algorithm in producing the temporal and spatial
characteristics of the number of extreme precipitation events observed in the
western Black Sea region of Turkey. Precipitation derived from WRF model with
and without the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme
and MPE algorithm at high spatial resolution (5 km) are compared with gauge
precipitation. WRF-derived precipitation showed capabilities in capturing the
timing of precipitation extremes and to some extent the spatial distribution
and magnitude of the heavy rainfall events, whereas MPE showed relatively weak
skills in these aspects. WRF skills in estimating such precipitation
characteristics are enhanced with the application of the 3DVAR scheme. Direct
impact of data assimilation on WRF precipitation reached up to 12% and at
some points there is a quantitative match for heavy rainfall events, which
are critical for hydrological forecasts. |
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