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Titel |
Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns |
VerfasserIn |
F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, Y. He, J. Freer, H. L. Cloke |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1023-5809
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 19, no. 6 ; Nr. 19, no. 6 (2012-11-13), S.623-633 |
Datensatznummer |
250014261
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/npg-19-623-2012.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional
climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for
hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation
of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation
characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output
Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct
method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based
scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16
RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the
ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts)
project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were
conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an
objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the
MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics
of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV
rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on
classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an
ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is
recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods. |
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