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| Titel |
Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050 |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Droogers, W. W. Immerzeel, W. Terink, J. Hoogeveen, M. F. P. Bierkens, L. P. H. Beek, B. Debele |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 9 ; Nr. 16, no. 9 (2012-09-03), S.3101-3114 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013456
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-3101-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of
climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental
considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact
of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An
advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to
determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the
current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation
model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water
demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while
total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an
increase of 157 km3 yr−1. This increase in shortage is the
combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in
water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs
applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3
yr−1 to 283 km3 yr−1~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22%
of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to
changes in socio-economic factors. |
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