 |
| Titel |
The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Z. Li, L. Zhang, H. Wang, Y. Q. Zhang, F. L. Yu, D. H. Yan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 4 ; Nr. 16, no. 4 (2012-04-26), S.1239-1254 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013261
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-1239-2012.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating
hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is
to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve
this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using
data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr
of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and streamflow
data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), modified index of agreement
(d1) and water balance error (WBE) were used as performance criteria.
We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120
sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well
the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each
catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on
the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter
stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was
used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters
and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of
the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration.
We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet
climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the
historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry
climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and
pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological
model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be
significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our
findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to
assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and
Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to
parameter instability and non-uniqueness. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|