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| Titel |
Characteristic scales in landslide modelling |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Piegari, R. Maio, L. Milano |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 16, no. 4 ; Nr. 16, no. 4 (2009-07-22), S.515-523 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013231
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-16-515-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Landslides are natural hazards occurring in response to triggers of
different origins, which can act with different intensities and
durations. Despite the variety of conditions that cause a landslide,
the analysis of landslide inventories has shown that landslide
events associated with different triggers can be characterized by
the same probability distribution. We studied a cellular automaton,
able to reproduce the landslide frequency-size distributions from
catalogues. From the comparison between our synthetic probability
distribution and the landslide area probability distribution of
three landslide inventories, we estimated the typical size of a
single cell of our cellular automaton model to be from
35–100 m2, which is important information if we are
interested in monitoring a test area. To determine the probability
of occurrence of a landslide of size s, we show that it is crucial
to get information about the rate at which the system is approaching
instability rather than the nature of the trigger. By varying such a
driving rate, we find how the probability distribution changes and,
in correspondence, how the size and the lifetime of the most
probable events evolve. We also introduce a landslide-event
magnitude scale based on the driving rate. Large values of the
proposed intensity scale are related to landslide events with a fast
approach to instability in a long distance of time, while small
values are related to landslide events close together in time and
approaching instability slowly. |
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