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| Titel |
Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Jaun, B. Ahrens |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 7 ; Nr. 13, no. 7 (2009-07-08), S.1031-1043 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011928
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-1031-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible
with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which
in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are
accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which
are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this
limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested,
which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system.
The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area
ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF
ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological
component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a
spatial resolution of 500 m.
Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of
hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present
an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006).
It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather
situations with appropriate spread. The ensemble also shows advantages over a
corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an
artificial spread. |
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