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| Titel |
High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany |
| VerfasserIn |
M. G. Donat, T. Pardowitz, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, O. Burghoff |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 10 ; Nr. 11, no. 10 (2011-10-25), S.2821-2833 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009736
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2821-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use
of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss
estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single
storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from
both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the
spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss
characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of
total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide
loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss
records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the
relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one
specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.
The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to
extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance
records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm
events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+
years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm
loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the
insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to
estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return
period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21
years. |
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