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| Titel |
Present and future impact of aircraft, road traffic and shipping emissions on global tropospheric ozone |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Koffi, S. Szopa, A. Cozic, D. Hauglustaine, P. Velthoven |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 10, no. 23 ; Nr. 10, no. 23 (2010-12-09), S.11681-11705 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008947
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-10-11681-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In this study, the LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model and up-to-date global
emission inventories are used to investigate the "present" (2000) and future
(2050) impacts of transport emissions (road traffic, shipping and aircraft)
on global tropospheric ozone. For the first time, both impacts of emissions
and climate changes on transport-induced ozone are investigated. The 2000
transport emissions are shown to mainly affect ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, with
a maximum increase of the tropospheric column of up to 5 DU, from the South-eastern US to Central Europe. The impact is dominated by
road traffic in the middle and upper troposphere, North of 40° S, and by
shipping in the northern lower troposphere, over oceanic regions. A strong
reduction of road emissions and a moderate (B1 scenario) to high (A1B
scenario) increase of the ship and aircraft emissions are projected by the
year 2050. As a consequence, LMDz-INCA simulations predict a drastic
decrease in the impact of road emissions, whereas aviation would become the
major transport perturbation on tropospheric ozone, even in the case of a
very optimistic aircraft mitigation scenario. The A1B emission scenario
leads to an increase of the impact of transport on zonal mean ozone
concentrations in 2050 by up to +30% and +50%, in the Northern and
Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Despite a similar total amount of global
NOx emissions by the various transport sectors compared to 2000, the
overall impact on the tropospheric ozone column is increased everywhere in
2050, due to a sectoral shift in the emissions of the respective transport
modes. On the opposite, the B1 mitigation scenario leads to a significant
reduction (by roughly 50%) of the ozone perturbation throughout the
troposphere compared to 2000.
Considering climate change, and according to scenario A1B, a decrease of the
O3 tropospheric burden is simulated by 2050 due to climate change (−1.2%), whereas an increase of ozone of up to 2% is calculated in the
upper troposphere in the inter-tropical zone, due to enhanced lightning
activity. A global impact of similar magnitude is simulated for the
transport-induced ozone burden perturbation (−1.6%). As a result, the
future increase in global ozone due to changes in anthropogenic emissions is
lowered by 12% and by 4%, for the background and the transport-induced
ozone, respectively. However, positive and negative climate effects are
obtained on ozone, depending on the season, region and altitude, with an
increase of the transport-induced ozone perturbation (+0.4 DU) in the
already most affected area of Northern Hemisphere. |
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