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| Titel |
A test for checking earthquake aperiodicity estimates from small samples |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Mucciarelli |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 7, no. 3 ; Nr. 7, no. 3 (2007-06-13), S.399-404 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004544
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-7-399-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In recent years, many new models for earthquake recurrence were proposed.
Some are focusing on the clustering properties on a small time scale, while
others try to model the long term behavior of large mainshocks. To this last
purpose, there is a growing interest for models that take into account the
aperiodicity aiming to a time-dependent hazard estimate. It is well known
that a limited number of inter-event times (IETs) may lead to biased values
of the distribution parameters. To overcome this problem different solutions
were proposed. This paper focuses on two of them: Monte Carlo simulation of
the process and aperiodicity estimated via a statistical proxy. The topics
discussed are: 1) how many IETs are needed for a correct estimate, 2) to
which extent a Poisson distribution is equally able to describe the process,
3) the influence of errors associated to paleoseismological IETs, and 4) the
goodness of the success ratio from simulations. A simple test is proposed to
discriminate real aperiodicity from apparent aperiodicity coming from
undersampling. |
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