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| Titel |
Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia – implications for intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) relationships |
| VerfasserIn |
D. C. Verdon-Kidd, A. S. Kiem |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 12 ; Nr. 19, no. 12 (2015-12-03), S.4735-4746 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120861
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-4735-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Rainfall intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) relationships are commonly
required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems
around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary
climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly
and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and
extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record.
However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last
15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of
the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on
interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of
regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913–2010) using 96 daily rainfall
stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the
effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored
for three long-term (1913–2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and
Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is
demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design
rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall
data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime
shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately
treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to
estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR),
and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue
of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to
natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also
have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit
considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on
relatively short data sets. |
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