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| Titel |
Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Hashemi, C. B. Uvo, R. Berndtsson |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 10 ; Nr. 19, no. 10 (2015-10-16), S.4165-4181 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120826
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-4165-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources
was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in
arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and
2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1)
for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied
region using the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model
(Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The
model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily
discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future
runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated
groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge
and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall–runoff
modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to
slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as
this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The
results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant
difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to
that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the
groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results
showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on
the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would
lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050. |
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