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| Titel |
Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale |
| VerfasserIn |
T. I. E. Veldkamp, S. Eisner, Y. Wada, J. C. J. H. Aerts, P. J. Ward |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 10 ; Nr. 19, no. 10 (2015-10-08), S.4081-4098 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120821
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-4081-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Globally, freshwater shortage
is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic
and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past
decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in
the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some
regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global
and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of
climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for
adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity
assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate
variability.
We show that over the time period 1961–2010, both water availability and
water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven
climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %);
an area inhabited by more than 31.4 % of the
global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is
often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events.
The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of
land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and
socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by
water scarcity events consists of 39.6 % (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1 % (WCI: water crowding index) of the global
population,
whilst only 11.4 % (CTA) and 15.9 % (WCI) of the global population is at
the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability.
These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found
under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in
regions exposed to water scarcity events.
Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and
scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts
under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential
for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by
more research on this emerging topic. |
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