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| Titel |
Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Chawla, P. P. Mujumdar |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 8 ; Nr. 19, no. 8 (2015-08-24), S.3633-3651 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120794
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-3633-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate
change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage
water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic
modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate
change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is
selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the
river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity
(VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to
understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first
scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under
invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow
due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario
estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over
the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three
scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change
on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from
dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs)
available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)
project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are
quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that
streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately
sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow
generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land
use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to
their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated
effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant
impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is
applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and
climate change on the streamflow. |
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