 |
| Titel |
Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, E. Pappenberger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 6 ; Nr. 19, no. 6 (2015-06-02), S.2577-2586 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120728
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-2577-2015.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The rainfall in southern Africa has a large inter-annual variability, which
can cause rain-fed agriculture to fail. The staple crop maize is especially
sensitive to dry spells during the early growing season. An early prediction
of the probability of dry spells and below normal precipitation can
potentially mitigate damages through water management. This paper
investigates how well ECMWF's seasonal forecasts predict dry spells over the
Limpopo basin during the rainy season December–February (DJF) with lead
times from 0 to 4 months. The seasonal forecasts were evaluated against
ERA-Interim reanalysis data, which in turn were corrected with GPCP (EGPCP)
to match monthly precipitation totals. The seasonal forecasts were also
bias-corrected with the EGPCP using quantile mapping as well as
post-processed using a precipitation threshold to define a dry day. The
results indicate that the forecasts show skill in predicting dry spells in
comparison with a climatological ensemble based on previous years. Quantile
mapping in combination with a precipitation threshold improved the skill of
the forecast. The skill in prediction of dry spells was largest over the most
drought-sensitive region. Seasonal forecasts have the potential to be used in
a probabilistic forecast system for drought-sensitive crops, though these
should be used with caution given the large uncertainties. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|