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| Titel |
Prediction of extreme floods based on CMIP5 climate models: a case study in the Beijiang River basin, South China |
| VerfasserIn |
C. H. Wu, G. R. Huang, H. J. Yu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 3 ; Nr. 19, no. 3 (2015-03-13), S.1385-1399 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120659
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-1385-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal, and is expected to be
experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme
events, including flooding. This paper presents an analysis of the
implications of climate change on the future flood hazard in the Beijiang
River basin in South China, using a variable infiltration capacity (VIC)
model. Uncertainty is considered by employing five global climate models
(GCMs), three emission scenarios (representative concentration pathway (RCP)
2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), 10 downscaling simulations for each emission
scenario, and two stages of future periods (2020–2050, 2050–2080).
Credibility of the projected changes in floods is described using an
uncertainty expression approach, as recommended by the Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The
results suggest that the VIC model shows a good performance in simulating
extreme floods, with a daily runoff Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient
(NSE) of 0.91. The GCMs and emission scenarios are a large source of
uncertainty in predictions of future floods over the study region, although
the overall uncertainty range for changes in historical extreme precipitation
and flood magnitudes are well represented by the five GCMs. During the
periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2080, annual maximum 1-day discharges (AMX1d)
and annual maximum 7-day flood volumes (AMX7fv) are expected to show very
similar trends, with the largest possibility of increasing trends occurring
under the RCP2.6 scenario, and the smallest possibility of increasing trends
under the RCP4.5 scenario. The projected ranges of AMX1d and AMX7fv show
relatively large variability under different future scenarios in the five
GCMs, but most project an increase during the two future periods (relative to
the baseline period 1970–2000). |
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