 |
| Titel |
Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River |
| VerfasserIn |
M. S. Siam, E. A. B. Eltahir |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 3 ; Nr. 19, no. 3 (2015-03-03), S.1181-1192 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120646
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-1181-2015.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| This study analyzes extensive data sets collected during the twentieth
century and defines four modes of natural variability in the flow of the Nile
River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability
of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant
teleconnection between the Nile flow and the eastern Pacific Ocean. El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the
interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, this study identifies a
region in the southern Indian Ocean, with a similarly strong teleconnection
to the Nile flow. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the region
(50–80° E and 25–35° S) explains 28% of the interannual
variability in the flow of the Nile River and, when combined with the ENSO
index, the explained variability of the flow of the Nile River increases to
44%. In addition, during those years with anomalous SST conditions in both
oceans, this study estimates that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and
Indian oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual
variability in the flow of the Nile. Building on these findings, this study
uses the classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting
algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global model predictions of
indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|