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| Titel |
A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Liu, F. Tian, M. Lin, M. Sivapalan  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 2 ; Nr. 19, no. 2 (2015-02-25), S.1035-1054 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120637
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-1035-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are
critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly
proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An
exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be
valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and
self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and
feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified
conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is
developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to
illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study
area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two
modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four
sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social
sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on
water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to
represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the
economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the
ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which
is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are
identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems
and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within
each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two
modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the
constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and
mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by
the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim
socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to
gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the
external drivers and internal system variables. The results show a costly
pendulum swing between a balanced distribution of socio-economic and natural
ecologic resources among the upper and lower reaches and a highly skewed
distribution towards the upper reach. This evolution is principally driven
by the attitudinal changes occurring within water resources management
policies that reflect the evolving community awareness of society to concerns
regarding the ecology and environment. |
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