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| Titel |
Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Asadieh, N. Y. Krakauer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 2 ; Nr. 19, no. 2 (2015-02-12), S.877-891 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120628
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-877-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Precipitation events are expected to become substantially more intense under
global warming, but few global comparisons of observations and climate model
simulations are available to constrain predictions of future changes in
precipitation extremes. We present a systematic global-scale comparison of
changes in historical (1901–2010) annual-maximum daily precipitation between
station observations (compiled in HadEX2) and the suite of global climate
models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP5). We use both parametric and non-parametric methods to
quantify the strength of trends in extreme precipitation in observations and
models, taking care to sample them spatially and temporally in comparable
ways. We find that both observations and models show generally increasing
trends in extreme precipitation since 1901, with the largest changes in the
deep tropics. Annual-maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) has increased
faster in the observations than in most of the CMIP5 models. On a global
scale, the observational annual-maximum daily precipitation has increased by
an average of 5.73 mm over the last 110 years, or 8.5% in relative terms.
This corresponds to an increase of 10% K−1 in global warming since
1901, which is larger than the average of climate models, with
8.3% K−1. The average rate of increase in extreme precipitation per
K of warming in both models and observations is higher than the rate of
increase in atmospheric water vapor content per K of warming expected from
the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. We expect our findings to help inform
assessments of precipitation-related hazards such as flooding, droughts and
storms. |
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