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| Titel |
The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 1: Physical–environmental assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Ronco, V. Gallina, S. Torresan, A. Zabeo, E. Semenzin, A. Critto, A. Marcomini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 12 ; Nr. 18, no. 12 (2014-12-23), S.5399-5414 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120577
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-5399-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazards
has increased, and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of
the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in
Europe over the last decade, causing loss of life, displacement of people and
heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing in frequency as a consequence of many
factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of
water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure
(elements potentially at risk in flood-prone area) and
vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural and
physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these
factors, the undeniable effect of climate change is projected to strongly
modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the
frequency and severity of flood events at the local, regional and global
scale. Within this context, the need for developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which
allow one to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threatens
different relevant receptors becomes urgent. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed
by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of
them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD).
This paper is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional
Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to appraise the risk posed by floods from
a physical–environmental perspective. The methodology, developed within the
recently completed FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to
develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention – KR) is flexible and can be adapted
to different case studies (i.e. plain rivers, mountain torrents,
urban and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from catchment
to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the
concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It
integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamic models with site-specific
bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover,
population density, economic activities etc.) to develop tailored risk indexes
and GIS-based maps for each of the selected receptors (i.e. people,
buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems,
cultural heritage) in the considered region. It further compares the
baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural
and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned and eventually
implemented. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014),
risk maps, along with related statistics, allow one to identify and
classify, on a relative scale, areas at risk which are more likely to be affected by floods
and support the development of strategic adaptation and prevention measures
to minimizing flood impacts. In addition, the outcomes of the RRA can be
eventually used for a further socio-economic assessment, considering the
tangible and intangible costs as well as the human dimension
of vulnerability. |
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