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| Titel |
Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Piras, G. Mascaro, R. Deidda, E. R. Vivoni |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 12 ; Nr. 18, no. 12 (2014-12-15), S.5201-5217 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120565
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-5201-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Future climate projections robustly indicate that the Mediterranean region
will experience a significant decrease of mean annual precipitation and an
increase in temperature. These changes are expected to seriously affect the
hydrologic regime, with a limitation of water availability and an
intensification of hydrologic extremes, and to negatively impact local
economies. In this study, we quantify the hydrologic impacts of climate
change in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), an agricultural watershed of 472.5 km2
in Sardinia, Italy. To simulate the wide range of runoff generation
mechanisms typical of Mediterranean basins, we adopted a physically based,
distributed hydrologic model. The high-resolution forcings in reference and
future conditions (30-year records for each period) were provided by four
combinations of global and regional climate models, bias-corrected and
downscaled in space and time (from ~25 km, 24 h to 5 km, 1 h)
through statistical tools. The analysis of the hydrologic model outputs
indicates that the RMB is expected to be severely impacted by future climate
change. The range of simulations consistently predict (i) a significant
diminution of mean annual runoff at the basin outlet, mainly due to a
decreasing contribution of the runoff generation mechanisms depending on
water available in the soil; (ii) modest variations in mean annual runoff
and intensification of mean annual discharge maxima in flatter sub-basins
with clay and loamy soils, likely due to a higher occurrence of infiltration
excess runoff; (iii) reduction of soil water content and actual
evapotranspiration in most areas of the basin; and (iv) a drop in the
groundwater table. Results of this study are useful to support the adoption
of adaptive strategies for management and planning of agricultural
activities and water resources in the region. |
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