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| Titel |
A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Masih, S. Maskey, F. E. F. Mussá, P. Trambauer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 9 ; Nr. 18, no. 9 (2014-09-17), S.3635-3649 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120471
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-3635-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available
literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and
country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts
in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts
occurred during 1900–2013, as well as evidence available from past centuries
based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and
written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate
change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate
that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the
last 50 years. The extreme droughts of 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1991–1992 were
continental in nature and stand unique in the available records.
Additionally, many severe and prolonged droughts were recorded in the recent
past such as the 1999–2002 drought in northwest Africa, 1970s and 1980s
droughts in western Africa (Sahel), 2010–2011 drought in eastern Africa (Horn of
Africa) and 2001–2003 drought in southern and southeastern Africa, to name a few.
The available (though limited) evidence before the 20th century confirms the
occurrence of several extreme and multi-year droughts during each century,
with the most prolonged and intense droughts that occurred in Sahel and
equatorial eastern Africa. The complex and highly variant nature of many
physical mechanisms such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea
surface temperature (SST) and land–atmosphere feedback adds to the daunting
challenge of drought monitoring and forecasting. The future predictions of
droughts based on global climate models indicate increased droughts and
aridity at the continental scale but large differences exist due to model
limitations and complexity of the processes especially for Sahel and northern
Africa.
However, the available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African
continent is likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in future. This
evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought
risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation
of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and
integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of
droughts anticipated in the future. |
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