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| Titel |
New method for assessing the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Emmer, V. Vilímek |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 9 ; Nr. 18, no. 9 (2014-09-09), S.3461-3479 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120461
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-3461-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents a new and easily repeatable method for assessing the
susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods (GLOFs) within the
Peruvian region of the Cordillera Blanca. The presented method was designed
to: (a) be repeatable (from the point of view of the demands on input data),
(b) be reproducible (to provide an instructive guide for different
assessors), (c) provide multiple results for different GLOF scenarios and
(d) be regionally focused on the lakes of the Cordillera Blanca. Based on
the input data gained from remotely sensed images and digital terrain models/topographical
maps, the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods
is assessed using a combination of decision trees for clarity and numerical
calculation for repeatability and reproducibility. A total of seventeen
assessed characteristics are used, of which seven have not been used in this
context before. Also, several ratios and calculations are defined for the
first time. We assume that it is not relevant to represent the overall
susceptibility of a particular lake to outburst floods by one result
(number), thus it is described in the presented method by five separate
results (representing five different GLOF scenarios). These are potentials
for (a) dam overtopping resulting from a fast slope movement into the lake,
(b) dam overtopping following the flood wave originating in a lake situated
upstream, (c) dam failure resulting from a fast slope movement into the
lake, (d) dam failure following the flood wave originating in a lake
situated upstream and (e) dam failure following a strong earthquake. All of
these potentials include two or three components and theoretically range
from 0 to 1. The presented method was verified on the basis of assessing the
pre-flood conditions of seven lakes which have produced ten glacial lake
outburst floods in the past and ten lakes which have not. A comparison of
these results showed that the presented method successfully identified lakes
susceptible to outburst floods (pre-flood conditions of lakes which have
already produced GLOFs). |
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