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| Titel |
Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin – Brazil |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Ribeiro Neto, C. A. Scott, E. A. Lima, S. M. G. L. Montenegro, J. A. Cirilo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 9 ; Nr. 18, no. 9 (2014-09-08), S.3449-3459 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120460
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-3449-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected
by climate change, especially in the arid and semiarid tropics. The main
objective of this study is to evaluate the infrastructure sufficiency in
meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in
the Capibaribe River basin (CRB). The basin has experienced spatial and
sectoral (agriculture-to-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human
settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of
surface water, are now larger and more spatially concentrated, which
increases water-scarcity effects. Based on the application of linked
hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature
projections of the IPCC SRES (Special Report: Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of
26.0% translated to streamflow reduction of 60.0%. We used simulations
from four members of the HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) perturbed physics ensemble, in which a
single model structure is used and perturbations are introduced to the
physical parameterization schemes in the model (Chou et al., 2012). We
considered that the change of the water availability in the basin in the
future scenarios must drive the water management and the development of
adaptation strategies that will manage the water demand. Several adaptive
responses are considered, including water-loss reductions, wastewater
collection and reuse, and rainwater collection cisterns, which together have
potential to reduce future water demand by 23.0%. This study demonstrates
the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological
transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB
and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of
multiple uses of water to changes over time. The simulations showed that the
measures proposed and the water from interbasin transfer project of the
São Francisco River had a positive impact over the water supply in the
basin, mainly for human use. Industry and irrigation will suffer impact
unless other measures are implemented for demand control. |
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