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| Titel |
Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Seiller, F. Anctil |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 6 ; Nr. 18, no. 6 (2014-06-03), S.2033-2047 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120373
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-2033-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Diagnosing the impacts of climate change on water resources is a difficult
task pertaining to the uncertainties arising from the different modelling
steps. Lumped hydrological model structures contribute to this uncertainty
as well as the natural climate variability, illustrated by several members
from the same Global Circulation Model. In this paper, the hydroclimatic
modelling chain consists of twenty-four potential evapotranspiration
formulations, twenty lumped conceptual hydrological models, and seven
snowmelt modules. These structures are applied on a natural Canadian
sub-catchment to address related uncertainties and compare them to the
natural internal variability of simulated climate system as depicted by five
climatic members. Uncertainty in simulated streamflow under current and
projected climates is assessed. They rely on interannual hydrographs and
hydrological indicators analysis. Results show that natural climate
variability is the major source of uncertainty, followed by potential
evapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models. The selected
snowmelt modules, however, do not contribute much to the uncertainty. The
analysis also illustrates that the streamflow simulation over the current
climate period is already conditioned by the tools' selection. This uncertainty
is propagated to reference simulations and future projections, amplified by
climatic members. These findings demonstrate the importance of opting for
several climatic members to encompass the important uncertainty related to
the climate natural variability, but also of selecting multiple modelling
tools to provide a trustworthy diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on
water resources. |
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