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| Titel |
Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, J. Vogt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 5 ; Nr. 18, no. 5 (2014-05-06), S.1591-1604 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120345
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-1591-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects
different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for
four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the
human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The
selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society
with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for
public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider
that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought.
The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical
framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different
components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of
scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in
order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction
of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability
indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of
subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator
and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought
vulnerability.
According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries
classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger,
Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital
component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate
drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical
regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of
Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the
western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo
Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa.
The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought
disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a
cause–effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the
drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought
vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts.
These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess
drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought
early warning systems in Africa. |
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