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| Titel |
Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Törnros, L. Menzel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 1 ; Nr. 18, no. 1 (2014-01-23), S.305-318 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120259
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-305-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Standardized Precipitation–Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order
to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the
Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the
first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly
precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated
precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of
timescales – for example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance
of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil
moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from
remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI),
i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also
conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation
with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of
the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when
addressing vegetation growth in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the
6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031–2060 with 1961–1990,
it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme
drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact
of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during
certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a
spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation
water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to
become even more vulnerable to drought in the future. |
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