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| Titel |
Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system |
| VerfasserIn |
P. E. O'Connell, G. O'Donnell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 1 ; Nr. 18, no. 1 (2014-01-14), S.155-171 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120250
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-155-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Due to a number of recent high-profile flood events and the apparent threat
from global warming, governments and their agencies are under pressure to
make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains. However,
adopting a proactive approach as a universal strategy is not affordable. It
has been argued that delaying expensive and essentially irreversible capital
decisions could be a prudent strategy in situations with high future
uncertainty. This paper firstly uses Monte Carlo simulation to explore the
performance of proactive and reactive investment strategies using a rational
cost–benefit approach in a natural system with varying levels of
persistence/interannual variability in annual maximum floods. It is found
that, as persistence increases, there is a change in investment strategy
optimality from proactive to reactive. This could have implications for
investment strategies under the increasingly variable climate that is
expected with global warming.
As part of the emerging holistic approaches to flood risk management, there
is increasing emphasis on stakeholder participation in determining where and
when flood protection investments are made, and so flood risk management is
becoming more people-centred. As a consequence, multiple actors are involved
in the decision-making process, and the social sciences are assuming an
increasingly important role in flood risk management. There is a need for
modelling approaches which can couple the natural and human system elements.
It is proposed that coupled human and natural system (CHANS) modelling could
play an important role in understanding the motivations, actions and
influence of citizens and institutions and how these impact on the effective
delivery of flood protection investment. A framework for using agent-based
modelling of human activities leading to flood investments is outlined, and
some of the challenges associated with implementation are discussed. |
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